Current Political Situation its reasons and solutions

 

When weather is becoming cold political atmosphere has become hot. Combination of poor governance and political turmoil is potent one. Current situation seems to be having both. Recent APC has clearly unnerved the government. Nawaz Sharif went further and attacked the real power holders through his speeches. Those speeches have largely been responded by government’s spokes persons as anti-state or by labelling some opponents as traitors. Power holders have also tried to discredit the opposition’s allegations by announcing their meeting with members of opposition parties. Some opponents have been called by NAB especially after the APC. The so called PDM (Pakistan Democratic Movement) has announced its leadership and its timetable for processions. So see that if they will be able to get sizeable crowd on streets and if they do then it will create more problems for the government politically and from governance aspect.

Reasons                    

Let’s come to the reasons due which this situation is created. For protests to succeed there must be a ripe environment for it. Government through its poor governance and mishandling of many affairs has itself made the right pitch for opposition to play at. Current increase in food inflation wheat and sugar) has affected each and every person of the country and poor most worst. With Covid which had already affected the economy and had made the sustenance of the people much difficult this hike in the most basic food items has made it much more difficult. These crisis have not only proved the inability of the present government to govern but has portrayed them as corrupt especially through sugar price hike (Jahangir tareen). Other major factors include gross chaotic governance ranging from frequent transfer and posting of government officers esp at federal and Punjab level. Even changes in the federal cabinet have not changed the situation. Still government seems to be unable to make a good working team for itself. Government in Punjab (Pakistan’s biggest province) things are more fragile in which Imran Khan has placed the first time mpa as the chief minister who doesn’t know the abc of governance. All these things coupled with bad economic situation have taken a huge toll on the political capital of the government. This government has thin majority in the national assembly but even then PTI seems to be less interested in engaging the other parties and making the conducing environment to make it easier for itself to do the legislation and make a stable political environment. There seems to be almost no cross platform engagement. This behavior stems from the so called “one page”  situation and it seems that government has outsourced the subjects of dealing with opposition parties and dealing even with its allies to “pindi” and making itself more dependent on pindi. Army seems to dealing with the opposition parties and even with the protests. There seems to be unusual alliance between government and pindi in which government has lost more than required spaced to pindi. Reasons for opposition to protest include stopping the lethal usage of NAB against itself, trying to get their due relevance, pressurizing the pindi to stop supporting this government especially politically and to increase their strength using the negatives of their performance and finally try to oust the govt if they could.

 

 

Solutions

For this government major problems can be solved if the get their act right in the area of governance and maintain an overall stability

Governance is not an easier job but a necessary one to present itself as politically stronger and the one in command. This government should first improve its governance.  For this improvements in the federal cabinet must be made and a good team should be formed and then better bureaucratic team should be placed and let them work and also take their suggestions into accounts rather than transferring every dissenting person. Setup in Punjab should be changed because it has not worked well for the people and even proved to be a handicap for the ruling party. Even if they have done some work (especially in south Punjab) the shear perception about it is not sustainable for the PTI if they want to perform. In this regard if the change is made at top level it will provide some space to ruling party. Government seems to be more interested in controlling narrative and blaming opposition but they are missing the point that through media management or narrative control they can portray their 40 % performance look like 70% but how can they portray 0% performance look like 90%. To create hype there must be some work on the ground, so big number of spokes persons are of no use if you have done nothing.

Government must work seriously to control inflation specially inflation in the prices of wheat and sugar. This type of inflation is creating unrest in the people and creating a good environment for the opposition to engage them. These are basic items for the people. Wheat’s has gone from 45 rs per kg to 75 rs per kg. Similarly sugar price has gone from 65 rs per kg to at least 95 rs per kg. Government must bring those prices down near to their previous levels. In the short term they should take action practical steps against hoarders or provide subsidy directly to people. In the longer run necessary crop production targets should be met to fulfill the national demand at the normal prices. Similarly coming gas shortage and resultant inflation from the use of expensive alternatives (lpg, wood, coal) will also compel people to come on the streets. Press releases about the notice taken by the prime minister and no practical result coming out of it are just depicting the incapacity of the government.

One of the major works of the political parties is to engage with other stakeholders. This part seems to be missing from the government. Political governments engage with not only allies but also with opponents to make a good working environment. NAB hunting of the opposition parties is damaging its accountability narrative and it has become a mere tool being used against the opposition parties. Court orders against NAB are a proof of it. Nobody is saying that corrupt should be spared but the end result in many of the cases has proved the arrests as mere NAB hunting. NAB should work on improving its quality of prosecution, random arrests not backed by the evidence has made it easier for the opposition parties to call it as foul play. Arrest of people like Shehbaz Sharif who talk about reconciliation  and co-operation who can act as neutralizer against the hawks in opposition seems to be self-destructing for government. So government should not make those damaging and unnecessary arrests and should make a politically stable environment so that it could work and perform as it has practically only 2 years left to show some performance.

  Current unusual alliance between government and pindi (involving political dimensions also) might be providing some short term relief to the government by outsourcing its responsibilities but in the longer run it has deprived the country of major so called neutral umpire which is used to mediate in the difficult/lock jam situation. We have seen those situations i.e Kayani’s roles in judges’ restoration march and even in Rahil Sharif’s talks with Imran khan during long march. So this involvement has made the state institutions more controversial. So government should not fall prey to its own spread narrative and should engage in talks with other political parties and should not consider itself as one who has came from the heavens which they have not. Pindi is more useful to Pakistani as the final arbiter between the political parties to make things work not as party to the problem. Secondly we have seen the parties which became the” baghal bachas” of army and completely rely on the army lose their popular support. So every party must maintain independent existence in power or out of the power. So this alliance is not all good for PTI itself.

Finally political moves or movements should be answered politically rather by banning somebody making early arrests or by traitor labelling. First government should improve its performance (esp decrease food inflation and controlling energy or gas shortage) then it should engage with the common people/its supporter base, arrange its own rallies or jalsas and these things are somewhat easier to organize esp when you are in government. Talk to individual parties participating in the protest especially who have stakes in this setup and those who are not in favor of what other dominating that alliance are doing. PTI can talk with PPP some others in PML-N who do not agree to take a head on fight engaging with conciliatory MNAs MPAs and senators. There some other smaller participants who just want their presence count, talk with them show respect towards them, listen to them. A political party should tackle situations politically rather than violently which can deteriorate the situation further.