The
rhetoric is full of foreboding and menace. A Delhi newspaper says China is
warning that the stand-off "could escalate into full-scale conflict".
Another echoes a similar sentiment, saying "China stiffens face-off
posture".
In Beijing, the state-run media has begun reminding India of its
defeat in the 1962 war over the border, digging out old reports and
pictures of the conflict. Global Times has
been particularly bellicose, first accusing India of undermining Bhutan's
sovereignty by interfering in the road project, and then declaring that if
India "stirs up conflicts in several spots, it must face the consequences
of all-out confrontation with China".
The
latest row erupted in mid-June when India opposed China's attempt to extend a
border road through a plateau known as Doklam in India and Donglang in China.
The
plateau, which lies at a junction between China, the north-eastern Indian state
of Sikkim and the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, is currently disputed between
Beijing and Bhutan. India supports Bhutan's claim over it.
India
is concerned that if the road is completed, it will give China greater access
to India's strategically vulnerable "chicken's neck", a 20km
(12-mile) wide corridor that links the seven north-eastern states to the Indian
mainland. And since this stand-off began, each side has reinforced its troops
and called on the other to back down.
There
is a dreadful sense of deja vu about the way the stand-off appears to be
escalating.
This
is not the first time the two neighbours who share a rocky relationship have
faced off on the ill-defined border, where minor incursions by troops have been
common. The region saw armed clashes between China and India in 1967, and a
prolonged stand-off and build-up of troops along the border in Arunachal
Pradesh in 1986-87.
Delhi believes that Beijing is testing India's
commitment to Bhutan in the latest stand-off, writes analyst
Ajai Shukla. "China has always been galled by this close relationship,
which has withstood sustained Chinese pressure to divide it," he says.
This
time China has upped the ante against India. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang
told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday that Indian forces should leave the area
to avoid an "escalation of the situation".
Indian
analysts believe China's warnings cannot be ignored. "In general, the
Chinese pattern of use of force has been to prepare the ground with adequate
statements and warnings. Hence, I think we should not take them lightly or see
it as a bluff," a China expert told me.
In 1962, the state-run news agency Xinhua warned well in advance
that India should "pull back from the brink of war". During the Korean War in 1950 which
pitted the US and its allies against the USSR, North Korea and communist China,
the Chinese warned the US through India that if they crossed the Yalu River the
Chinese would be forced to enter the war.
To
be true, this doesn't mean that China is girding up for war. As things stand,
both sides can share some blame for the stand-off in what is a strategically
important area.
In
2012, India and China agreed that the tri-junction boundaries with Bhutan and
Myanmar (also called Burma) would be finally decided in consultation with these
countries. Until then, the status quo would prevail.
India believes China violated the status quo by
building the road. Indian troops were sent to resist their Chinese counterparts
in the area only after Bhutan, which has close ties with India, requested India
to help.
China insists Indian troops invaded Doklam/Donglang
to help Bhutan, and it was a violation of international law. Mr Lu says India
should not "take trespass as a policy tool to reach or realise their
political targets".
Some analysts say India possibly
made a mistake by openly conflating the building of the road with talk of
potential "serious security
implications for India".
"I agree that there were security concerns, but
it was wrong for India to voice them strongly. We could have just said that
China had breached the status quo. By overplaying the security angle, we may
have scored an own goal, and the Chinese are exploiting it," an analyst
told me.
Tricky situation
He has a point. Long Xingchun, an
analyst at a Chinese think-tank, says "a third country's" army could
enter the disputed region of Kashmir at Pakistan's request, using the "same logic" the
Indian army has used to stop the Chinese troops from building the road in
Doklam/Donglang. "Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan's
territory, this could only be limited to its established territory, not the
disputed area."
Clearly, for the stand-off to end, all three sides
need an agreeable solution without losing face. As China hardens its position,
many believe that finding a "three-way, face saving solution" would
be tricky and time consuming. Relations between the two countries are also at
their lowest ebb in many years.
Both sides possibly passed up an opportunity to
resolve the crisis earlier this month when a potential meeting between
President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the
G20 summit in Hamburg did not happen. India said a meeting with Mr Xi had never
been on Mr Modi's agenda; and China's foreign ministry had said the atmosphere
was not right for a meeting.
There's
another window of opportunity coming up. India's influential National Security
Adviser Ajit Doval is to visit Beijing for a meeting of Brics nations later
this month. Mr Doval, who is also the special representative for the
India-China border, is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi.
"Both sides have made it a prestige issue. But
diplomacy is all about keeping things going in difficult circumstances," a
former diplomat says.
Despite the deteriorating relationship, a war is
unlikely to break out.
"I don't think either side wants an armed
conflict. Nobody is interested in a war. Nothing in the [stand-off] area is
worth a conflict. But both sides see their reputations at stake and that could
lead to a prolonged stand-off," Srinath Raghavan, a senior fellow at the
leading Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research think-tank told me.
Pakistan in whole plot
This kind of tense situation can be well manipulated by Pakistan by more
pressure on India on the Line of Control in Kashmir.Two regional friends on the
east and west side of India can collectively
harm India.Pakistan after the situation is somehow building the pressure
on India by attacking on the Indian army
on Line of Control and hence as a result no of causualities of amry men has been increased.In Dehli
Pakistani ambassador Abdul Basit became active met with both China’s and
Bhuttan’s ambassadors to India.So it’s a challenge for India to deal with with
both countries supporting each other militarily at Line of Control and at
Macmohan Line or Line of Actual Control.
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